The DANA Tragedy

Autor: Ramon Salazar Soler

24/01/2025
A Deadly Combination of Climate Change and Human Cognitive Biases
The Reality of Climate Change and Its Increasingly Severe Effects
Two articles published in La Vanguardia on 1st November, just two days after the devastating cut-off low-pressure system (DANA is its Spanish acronym that has unfortunately become popular) storm, prompted me to reflect on the significant role that human cognitive biases play in the management of humanitarian crises.
Jorge Olcina, a professor of Geography at the University of Alicante, highlighted in an interview that the warming of the Mediterranean Sea was a crucial factor behind the torrential rains of the DANA. Within just one or two hours, the storm unleashed over 200 litres per square metre of rainfall. The rising sea temperatures transfer enormous amounts of energy to the atmosphere, fuelling the formation of highly charged storm clouds capable of extreme precipitation. Olcina emphasised that “Something is changing—these are not the cold drops of the past.”
The Invisible Danger: How Cognitive Biases Exacerbate Disasters
Our brains have evolved to rely on cognitive shortcuts and rapid responses—mechanisms that have historically helped humans survive immediate threats. However, these same mental shortcuts can be detrimental when facing long-term challenges or counterintuitive risks such as climate change and extreme weather events.
Cognitive biases are systematic errors in our thinking, often stemming from subjective perceptions, heuristic shortcuts, or evolutionary instincts like the fight-or-flight response. While some biases lead to tribalism or deception, most operate subconsciously, influencing personal and professional decision-making, as well as group dynamics. Tragically, the DANA crisis was no exception.
10 Common Cognitive Biases That May Have Contributed to the DANA Crisis
Cognitive biases can distort judgment, delay action, and amplify the impact of disasters. Here are ten biases that likely played a role in worsening the DANA catastrophe:
1. Confirmation Bias
People tend to seek, interpret, and remember information that aligns with their existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence. This bias can lead to underestimating the increasing severity of climate change.
2. Anchoring Bias
The tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information received. If previous storms were less severe, people may have dismissed warnings about the escalating danger of the DANA.
3. Gender and Diversity Bias
Unconscious stereotypes can influence how people perceive risk and respond to crises, often sidelining crucial perspectives from diverse voices in decision-making.
4. Just-World Hypothesis
A cognitive fallacy that assumes the world is inherently fair—leading people to believe that disasters happen only to those who "deserve" them. This can reduce urgency in taking preventive measures.
5. Evaluation Bias
Primacy or Recency Effect: People often judge situations based on their first or most recent experience rather than an objective overall assessment.
This can lead to underestimating new threats if past weather events were less extreme.
6. Selective Perception
Our fears, expectations, or personal beliefs shape how we interpret information. This can cause individuals to downplay risks based on their own past experiences.
7. Overconfidence Bias
Excessive confidence in one's own judgment can lead people to ignore expert warnings, continue daily activities despite red alerts, and underestimate the severity of a crisis.
8. Groupthinking
The tendency for group consensus to overshadow independent critical thinking. In emergencies, this can lead to flawed decisions if dissenting voices are suppressed.
9. Authority Bias
The inclination to trust statements from authoritative figures without questioning their validity. Poor decision-making by officials can be blindly accepted, worsening crisis responses.
10. Halo Effect
The tendency to assume that if a person is credible in one area, they are trustworthy in others. This bias contributes to the rapid spread of misinformation when people trust misleading messages from familiar sources on social media.

Cognitive Biases in Action: How They Worsened the DANA Crisis
During the DANA storm, various cognitive biases had real-world consequences:
Overconfidence Bias: Many people ignored official warnings and continued their normal routines despite the red alert issued by authorities. This put lives at unnecessary risk.
Halo Effect & Confirmation Bias: The spread of fake news via WhatsApp and social media intensified chaos. Ferran Lalueza, a professor of communication at the UOC, explained that “People trust messages received from friends or family more than official sources, even if the information is false.”
Groupthinking: The collective tendency to dismiss the severity of climate-related disasters led to inadequate preparation and response.If these biases are not recognised and mitigated, future crises will continue to be mismanaged, with potentially fatal consequences.

How to Counteract Cognitive Biases in Emergency Response and Critical Sectors
1. Awareness and Self-Reflection
Recognising our own cognitive biases is the first step in mitigating their impact. Individuals should actively question their assumptions, verify sources of information, and reflect on their decision-making processes.
2. Encouraging Diverse Perspectives
In crisis management, ensuring diverse representation in decision-making teams can help counteract biases. Different perspectives help challenge assumptions and improve critical thinking.
3. Fostering Safe Communication Spaces
Teams must create environments where people feel free to express concerns, challenge dominant views, and propose alternative solutions without fear of dismissal.
4. Strengthening Official Communication Channels
Governments and emergency services must improve public trust in official warnings. Misinformation thrives in the absence of clear, authoritative communication. According to Professor Olcina, “We need stricter and more effective protocols for alert communication to ensure that warnings reach citizens directly.”
5. Training for Bias Awareness in Critical Professions
Sectors such as emergency response, policymaking, and media should integrate cognitive bias awareness training to enhance decision-making in high-pressure situations.

Final Thoughts: Bias, Climate Change, and the Need for Smarter Crisis Management
Cognitive biases are an inherent part of human nature, but when left unchecked, they can worsen the consequences of natural disasters like the DANA storm. Climate change is making extreme weather events more frequent and intense, and our ability to respond effectively depends not just on infrastructure but on overcoming psychological blind spots.
By fostering awareness, encouraging critical thinking, and improving emergency communication strategies, we can reduce the deadly impact of biases in crisis management. The future depends not only on climate action but also on how well we train ourselves to think beyond our biases.

FAQs
1. What is the main link between cognitive biases and climate disasters?
Cognitive biases cause people to underestimate risks, ignore expert warnings, and make poor decisions in crisis situations, leading to higher casualties and mismanagement.
2. How does misinformation spread during disasters?
Misinformation spreads due to the Halo Effect and Confirmation Bias—people trust messages from friends or social media over official sources, leading to confusion and panic.
3. Can cognitive biases be eliminated?
While biases are natural, they can be mitigated through awareness, training, and structured decision-making processes.
4. How can governments improve emergency responses?
Governments should enhance public trust in official warnings, strengthen communication channels, and implement strict, clear emergency response protocols.
5. Why do people ignore extreme weather warnings?
Overconfidence Bias and Groupthink make people assume that past experiences will repeat, leading them to underestimate new risks despite official alerts.


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